The Harbour Outlook summarises recent market developments, what we are monitoring closely, and our key views on the outlook for fixed interest, credit and equity markets.
Key developments Following on from the same themes in January, markets continued to see strong global economic growth in February, but worried about the top risk on our list for 2018 – namely inflation risk and ultimately concerns about whether monetary sti...
Harbour Equity Update: a2 Milk, Fletcher Building and CBL
This report will discuss three specific stocks (a2 Milk, Fletcher Building and CBL), as investor interest in these stocks has been particularly high recently.
February is often a busy time for investment announcements, and this year has carried a number of surprises.
In the month of February, provisional return data indicates Harbour’s active NZ and Australasian equity funds and mandates, out-performed the market benchmark ...
New Year, similar themes
This New Year brings with it a slew of market outlook articles and fresh investment strategies. In adorning the wall with a new Gregorian calendar in 2018, we see only an evolution of current themesREAD MORE
Goldilocks: Not too hot, not too cold
After strong year for returns from Australasian equity markets, investors are asking: what does 2018 offer? Are the ‘goldilocks’ conditions of solid economic growth, low inflation and easy monetary policy settings likely to continue to support equity market returns?
While we believe the near-term outlook for local equity returns remains positive, two scenarios may challenge these goldilocks ‘not too hot, not too cold’ conditi...
The turning tide: Why investors should go active
This piece was originally published in The Listener on 11 December.
Investment markets constantly change, so it’s best to be prepared. An active fund uses research to take advantage of market trends and maximise returns.
Investment markets constantly change. Sometimes almost every investment goes up in value, which can make investors complacent. The NZX and many investment markets around the world are currently sitting at re...
Nearing an end to the New Zealand Goldilocks?
Markets, both in New Zealand and globally, have experienced goldilocks conditions for the past 5 years of low inflation and solid economic growth. While markets performed strongly in November, there were increasing signs, particularly in New Zealand, that 2018 may involve a transition away from this goldilocks environment.READ MORE
A Prudent Response to Expensive Housing
With 60% of Australian bank lending housing related, banks are bound inextricably to the property cycle. Unlike the worst-hit global geographies, the Australian household did not go through a period of deleveraging post-GFC, as housing credit continued to outpace income growth. With this backdrop, regulators are now doing their utmost to increase banks’ resilience and the banks too are chipping in.
There is not only one Aust...
Adjusting to Change
Key developments ‘Adjusting to change’ continued to be a key theme driving markets in October, whether it was political change, normalising global interest rates or changing consumer behaviour reflecting disruptive technological changes.
New Zealand had the drama of watching election coalition negotiations unfold, which eventually enabled the Labour Party and New Zealand First to form a government, with supply and confidence ...
Dispelling the myth that a dual mandate implies easier monetary policy
In the economy section of the new NZ government’s Coalition Agreement, the top of the list is “Review and Reform of the Reserve Bank Act”. Given the preference of Labour and NZ First to give the RBNZ a dual mandate for both inflation and employment, the market has interpreted this as implying lower interest rates to encourage job growth. In our view, while the inclusion of a full employment objective will enable the governmen...READ MORE
Xi's China: More of the same, or big changes ahead?
In what is undoubtedly the most significant change of global leadership in 2017, President Xi Jinping of China has consolidated his powers further into the next five-year term.
Source: Xinhuanet (official press agency of the People’s Republic of China)
Xi is now ranked as one of the most influential Chinese leaders since the Cultural Revolution and has staffed the Politburo Standing Committee with five close allies. The Stan...