Harbour Navigator: The business recovery waits… again
The big surprise from today’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) was that firms reported a further reduction in their ability to lift prices, despite higher costs - likely appeasing the RBNZ’s concern of higher near-term inflation.
The underlying driver is a better appreciated dynamic – weak demand and large amounts of spare capacity, as flagged by the PMIs dropping in to contractionary territory.
While there is ho…
Harbour Navigator: Insights from the ground in the US
Our recent US trip offered valuable perspectives on how the AI boom is reshaping investment approaches, amid ongoing uncertainty around trade and tariffs.
Interviews with US managers
Watch the interview with David Siino, TD Epoch:
Watch the interview with Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price:
How top global managers are positioning for the AI era
At the end of 2022, ChatGPT was made available to the public. This was a watershed mome…
Harbour Navigator: NZ farmers not spending up big, yet
Despite downside risks to trading partner growth from tariffs, our export sector is currently enjoying the enviable combination of high global prices and solid demand.
For now, however, bank data suggest most of the additional export revenue is being used to pay down debt and increase cash balances – limiting pass through to the broader economy.
Our recent trip to Fieldays, the Southern hemisphere’s largest agricultural eve…
Harbour Outlook: Markets rebound amid trade uncertainty
Key market movements
Global equities rebounded strongly in May, posting a return worthy of top decile historically, at 5.1% in unhedged NZD terms, and 5.6% NZD-hedged. Broadly, most sectors were positive, with healthcare an outlier at -3.7% and information technology leading the pack at +10.3%.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market also bounced back with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) delivering a…
Harbour Navigator: The Australian Share Market - Lucky? Resilient? Both?
Australia has the reputation of being the lucky country. The Australian share market has a similar reputation, with the benchmark Australian S&P/ASX200 share index generating an almost 10% per annum compound return in the 25 years from May 2000 to May 2025. But is the Australian share market lucky, or is it resilient with a framework that provides the basis for these attractive compound returns through economic and investment …
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Harbour Navigator: Housing recovery likely to be gradual
The NZ housing market has woken from its slumber in recent months with house prices up 1.3% since October and sales approaching long-term average levels. Several factors look set to limit the pace of recovery, including low population growth, a soft labour market, poor affordability, a large number of listings and low rental yields.
We respecify and re-estimate our house price model to include post-Covid data and add housing…
Harbour Outlook: Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs Reshape Global Markets
Key market movements
Global equities were again lower in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms in April, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) declining 3.7%. With the NZD strengthening against the USD, returns in hedged terms were -0.4% for the month.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market continued its poor start to the year with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) down a further 3.0% in April. In co…
Harbour Navigator: Solar energy – a brighter future?
This is the second note in our energy transition research series, exploring how solar energy fits into the current and future energy mix in New Zealand. Solar energy is a tried and tested renewable energy source, in fact, humans have used solar energy as early as the 7th century B.C.
How is electricity from solar energy produced?We thought it is worth a few sentences on the technical aspects of solar before we jump in to how …
Harbour Outlook: Escalating trade tensions impact markets
Key market movements
Global equities were sharply lower in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms in March, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) declining 5.0%. With the NZD strengthening against the USD, returns in hedged terms were -4.5% for the month.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market continued its poor start to the year with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) down 2.4% in March. Australian…
Harbour Navigator: Liberation Day signals a painful transition
The US has announced a more aggressive than expected increase in import tariffs, which incorporates a reciprocal tariff programme with a minimum 10% on all countries, including Australia and New Zealand.
If tariffs are maintained at these newly announced levels, we expect them to lower already-decelerating US GDP growth and increase inflation pressures. Global growth is likely to fall as a result of this US weakness and as e…
