Harbour Navigator: NZ out of recession but risks remain skewed to lower rates
NZ is now technically out of recession and most forecasters expect ongoing above-trend growth this year without stimulatory monetary policy, i.e. an OCR below 3%. We are sceptical and see risks skewed to NZ needing sub-3%, or at least a much longer period of neutral, interest rates given the historically large amount of spare capacity.
There are of course several ways we could be wrong, including: the economy is stronger than ...
Harbour Navigator: Bankers say more volatility for the lucky country
Top bankers say the Australian economy may be lifting, but volatility from tariffs is likely.
Unquestionably strong bank capital to stay in Australia.
The February RBA rate cut might have made a positive difference for household sentiment, but business confidence is more attached to the global environment.
Australia is also grappling with low productivity and potentially needs to work out how to ensure bank lending finds its w...
Harbour Navigator: Don't look up! A new climate reality
Are we there yet?In 2024 the world spent a full 12 months above the 1.5°C warming threshold, in 2023 we spent close to a third of the year above 1.5°C. While technically not a breach of the long-term commitments made as part of the Paris Agreement, it does move the world closer to this scenario. The Copernicus Global Climate Highlights 2024[i] Report notes that, not only was 2024 the warmest year on record, the last 10 years a...
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Harbour Outlook: An inflection point to come for earnings?
Key market movements
Global equities were marginally positive in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms in February, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) increasing 0.3%. With the NZD losing previously made ground, returns in hedged terms were -0.8% for the month.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market continued to weaken with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) down 3.0% in February. Australian equiti...
Harbour Navigator: The pace of biotech commercialisation is accelerating
The growing importance of biotech companies has reflected the flood of lower cost equity and debt funding over the last 5-10 years together with large healthcare companies farming out some of the risk profile for developing new diagnostics and “drugs”. Whether this trend is sustainable will depend on how successful, and at what cost, new drugs and services can be delivered.
Artificial Intelligence offers considerable opportuni...
Harbour Outlook: A rebound amid uncertainty
Key market movements
Global equities rebounded in January. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) increased 2.4% last month, in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms. With the NZD strengthening through January, returns in hedged terms were 3.3% for the month.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market weakened with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) down 0.9% in January. In contrast, Australian equities had a c...
The Future of Clean Energy: Supercritical geothermal
Supercritical Geothermal: The future of clean energy?This is the first in a series of Harbour’s research on the energy transition. Our Navigators will explore New Zealand’s transition to a clean and reliable energy system by 2050.
We felt it best to start with a combination of controversy and innovation. The recent $60 million investment by the Government to explore the potential of supercritical geothermal highlights the lon...
Harbour Navigator: A Year in Review: Charting sustainability themes from 2024
Climate change disclosures have taken their place in the limelight on the back of new reporting regulations.
Positive trends have been observed in company health and safety performance and action towards addressing modern slavery concerns.
The oversight of artificial intelligence use is a key emerging issue at the governance level for company boards.
Sustainability considerations were particularly prevalent in company disclosu...
Harbour Outlook: So much for the Christmas rally
Key market movements
The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) increased 3.1% last month, in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms. The gain, however, was entirely due to a sharp drop in the NZD with the index falling 1.7% in NZD-hedged terms in December – so much for the Christmas rally!
Locally, the New Zealand equity market eked out further gains in December with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) up 0.4%. ...
Top 10 Risks and Opportunities for 2025
At 11:59pm on Wednesday the 25th of March 2020, New Zealand entered a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19. At the time, headlines about COVID-19's impact on share markets ranged from terrible to catastrophic. Yet, at the time of writing, the US equity market has returned more than 190% since that point in 2020, while the New Zealand share market has returned almost 70% (more on that gap later). Few would have...
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