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Back in vogue: lower tranches of securitised debt

Market pricing on lower tranches of credit has tightened meaningfully
In some cases, collateral (investor protection) has at the same time fallen
Harbour continues to favour stronger rated credit exposures with, in our view, better future risk-return characteristics

Black-listed after the GFC, investor demand for securitised (asset-backed) debt has recently increased significantly, driving notable changes in pricing, and, in …

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Simon Pannett | Posted on Jul 9, 2025
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Harbour Outlook: Positive momentum amid easing tensions

Key market movements 

Global equities continued their momentum from the previous month, posting a solid return of 2.8% in unhedged NZD terms, and 3.8% for NZD-hedged investors. Information technology and communication services once again led performance for the month, while the consumer sectors lagged. 

Locally, the New Zealand equity market performed well with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) delive…

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Ryan Gillanders | Posted on Jul 8, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: The business recovery waits… again

The big surprise from today’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) was that firms reported a further reduction in their ability to lift prices, despite higher costs - likely appeasing the RBNZ’s concern of higher near-term inflation.

The underlying driver is a better appreciated dynamic – weak demand and large amounts of spare capacity, as flagged by the PMIs dropping in to contractionary territory. 

While there is ho…

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Jul 1, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Insights from the ground in the US

Our recent US trip offered valuable perspectives on how the AI boom is reshaping investment approaches, amid ongoing uncertainty around trade and tariffs. 

Interviews with US managers

Watch the interview with David Siino, TD Epoch:

Watch the interview with Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price:

How top global managers are positioning for the AI era
At the end of 2022, ChatGPT was made available to the public. This was a watershed mome…

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Ryan Gillanders and Louis Nel | Posted on Jun 24, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: NZ farmers not spending up big, yet

Despite downside risks to trading partner growth from tariffs, our export sector is currently enjoying the enviable combination of high global prices and solid demand.

For now, however, bank data suggest most of the additional export revenue is being used to pay down debt and increase cash balances – limiting pass through to the broader economy. 

Our recent trip to Fieldays, the Southern hemisphere’s largest agricultural eve…

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Jun 18, 2025
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Harbour Outlook: Markets rebound amid trade uncertainty

Key market movements

Global equities rebounded strongly in May, posting a return worthy of top decile historically, at 5.1% in unhedged NZD terms, and 5.6% NZD-hedged. Broadly, most sectors were positive, with healthcare an outlier at -3.7% and information technology leading the pack at +10.3%.

Locally, the New Zealand equity market also bounced back with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) delivering a…

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Jun 9, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: The Australian Share Market - Lucky? Resilient? Both?

Australia has the reputation of being the lucky country. The Australian share market has a similar reputation, with the benchmark Australian S&P/ASX200 share index generating an almost 10% per annum compound return in the 25 years from May 2000 to May 2025. But is the Australian share market lucky, or is it resilient with a framework that provides the basis for these attractive compound returns through economic and investment …

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Shane Solly | Posted on Jun 4, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Housing recovery likely to be gradual

The NZ housing market has woken from its slumber in recent months with house prices up 1.3% since October and sales approaching long-term average levels. Several factors look set to limit the pace of recovery, including low population growth, a soft labour market, poor affordability, a large number of listings and low rental yields.

We respecify and re-estimate our house price model to include post-Covid data and add housing…

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on May 22, 2025
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Harbour Outlook: Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs Reshape Global Markets

Key market movements
Global equities were again lower in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms in April, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) declining 3.7%. With the NZD strengthening against the USD, returns in hedged terms were -0.4% for the month.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market continued its poor start to the year with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) down a further 3.0% in April. In co…

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on May 8, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Solar energy – a brighter future?

This is the second note in our energy transition research series, exploring how solar energy fits into the current and future energy mix in New Zealand. Solar energy is a tried and tested renewable energy source, in fact, humans have used solar energy as early as the 7th century B.C.

How is electricity from solar energy produced?We thought it is worth a few sentences on the technical aspects of solar before we jump in to how …

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Sue Walker | Posted on Apr 28, 2025