Top 10 Risks and Opportunities for 2025
At 11:59pm on Wednesday the 25th of March 2020, New Zealand entered a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19. At the time, headlines about COVID-19's impact on share markets ranged from terrible to catastrophic. Yet, at the time of writing, the US equity market has returned more than 190% since that point in 2020, while the New Zealand share market has returned almost 70% (more on that gap later). Few would have...
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Harbour Navigator: A Dose of Reality: Key US healthcare controversies
At a Jefferies’ healthcare conference recently, concerns about the U.S. subsidising global healthcare markets were highlighted, with discussions on disparities in drug pricing and reimbursement practices. Globally, vaccine fatigue and misinformation remain significant challenges, as do funding pressures across the healthcare sector.
The conference emphasised advancements in vaccine technologies, including mRNA and saRNA, but ...
Harbour Investment Outlook: Let the good times roll
Key market movements
The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) increased 4.4% last month, in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms, almost matching last month. This time the strength had very little to do with NZD weakness as returns in NZD-hedged terms were 4.1% for November.
Locally, the New Zealand equity market had another good month, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) increasing 3.4%. The S&P/ASX 200...
Harbour Navigator: Vertical SaaS is devouring software - and AI is hungry for the next bite
In 2011 Andreessen Horowitz, founder of a16z, famously said “software is eating the world”, making the prediction that, over the next decade, the world would see many industries be disrupted by software. Perhaps some of the more prominent examples were how Netflix gutted Blockbuster and the suicide of Borders as it handed over its online business to Amazon under the theory that online book sales were unimportant.
Today, softw...
Harbour Investment Outlook: Waiting game
Key market movements
The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) increased 4.5% last month, in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms. However, the strength was due entirely to NZD weakness with returns in NZD-hedged terms, coming in at -1.1% for October.
Locally, New Zealand equity market returns picked up after a couple of flat months, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) increasing 1.7%. The S&P/ASX 200 Ind...
Harbour Navigator: I see red, I see red, I see red: Adapting to Trump policy uncertainty
A Trump victory and likely Republican congressional sweep could signal major shifts in US economic policy, such as tax and tariffs.
Markets had partly leaned into a Trump win, with many strategists previously picking a Republican clean sweep as a 30-40% chance.
However, the immediate reaction of markets suggests a further possible movement of asset prices as bond yields factor in potentially higher US inflation, larger US defi...
Harbour Navigator: Don't be disappointed by dividend illusions
Investors may be paying too much for short term dividend income illusions.
Paying dividends from capital rather than recurring earnings is not sustainable over time
One-off asset sales might better be paid out as special dividends or returned to shareholders as share buy backs
Investors must exercise caution when evaluating companies offering seemingly attractive dividends. A high current yield may mask underlying issues that ...
Harbour Navigator: Responsible Investment in the mainstream - it's no side hustle
The climate transition is driven increasingly by the economics as technology takes over, says Dr Rod Carr
More than $1bn a day globally is needed for climate transition and adaptation over the next thirty years and the private sector has a pivotal role to play
FMA focusing on greenwashing given the uptake by consumers
Modern Slavery and Nature are likely the next frontiers of responsible investing.
The recent RIAA Aotearoa New...
Harbour Navigator: How an easing process is felt by different households
The RBNZ has started its easing cycle and markets expect much more, taking the OCR to 3% in one year’s time.
Lower interest rates should boost economic activity, while higher council rates and insurance costs are likely to provide an offsetting force.
Household experiences of lower interest rates will differ greatly, depending on respective financial situations. We think those with debt are likely to benefit most from a cas...
Harbour Investment Outlook: Surprise stimulus
Key market movements
The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) edged 0.6% higher last month, in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms. Returns in NZD-hedged terms were much better for a second month due to continued NZD strength, coming in at 1.9% for September.
Locally, New Zealand equity market returns for the month were again muted after strong returns in July, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) flat. ...
