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Harbour Navigator: A selloff under clear blue skies sparks risk-off

Since mid-July global equity market prices have fallen by around 5% as a range of risk factors have risen to the top of investors’ considerations. The drivers for a selloff are rarely perfectly clear and generally include broader economic, positioning and technical influences. When markets were travelling well in the first half of 2024, you could be forgiven for thinking that conditions were like a perfect winter’s day in Well...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Aug 6, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: When Rates Fall, Equity M&A Comes to Play

The Arvida deal and now cancelled Warehouse takeover approach gave rise to an expectation of more M&A (merger and acquisition) activity. A lift in capital market activity could be prompted by expectations of lower interest rates linked to weakening activity in the current economic cycle.
The state of the current economic cycle reflects an established cross-sector pattern of weakening activity alongside falling interest rates, ...

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Andrew Bascand & Hamish Pepper | Posted on Aug 2, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: RBNZ acknowledges weakening data, establish option to cut OCR quite soon

The RBNZ held the OCR at 5.50%, but in acknowledging a significant weakening in inflation pressures, they set themselves up with the option to cut the OCR pre-Christmas, possibly as early as their next meeting in August.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” John Maynard Keynes’ ghost could have been at the RBNZ’s OCR review meeting. The central bank, having been determined to bring inflation and inf...

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Mark Brown | Posted on Jul 10, 2024
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Harbour Investment Outlook: A fork in the road for central banks?

Key market movements
MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) posted a strong return in June, at 3.1% in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms for the month. Returns in NZD-hedged terms came in at 2.6% after New Zealand dollar weakness. Performance was again mixed from a sector perspective. Information technology surged ahead by 10.0%, followed by communication services at 4.6%. Utilities and materials were the worst performing sectors...

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Jul 8, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: Weak QSBO points to lower rates ahead

Weak QSBO points to lower rates ahead
The Q2 QSBO was a sobering read as it corroborated other indicators that suggest the New Zealand economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent months.

The survey indicated a trifecta of rapid labour market easing, contracting economic activity and markedly reduced inflation pressure.


We expect the RBNZ to take note, likely delivering a more balanced message at next week’s Jul...

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Jul 4, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: Back on the ground in China

Consumer sentiment in China remains cautious post-pandemic, with spending reluctance despite crowds being back to normal.
Demographics are shaping long-term views of consumption and investing, with the UN’s central forecast projecting China’s population to halve over the next 75 years.
Policy initiatives will be closely watched to see whether these can offset the structural changes occurring and, of course, a cyclical recovery...

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Øyvinn Rimer | Posted on Jun 21, 2024
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Harbour Investment Outlook: Treading water amid uncertainty?

Key market movements
MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) was stable in May with a return of 0.2% in New Zealand dollar-unhedged terms for the month. Returns in NZD-hedged terms were considerably better at 3.7% after a combination of US dollar weakness, and New Zealand dollar strength on the back of supportive Chinese policy. Performance (unhedged) was mixed from a sector perspective, with only information technologies, utiliti...

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Jun 11, 2024
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Harbour Investment Outlook: Choppy waters ahead

Key market movements
After a strong first quarter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) fell in April with a return of ‑2.3% in New Zealand dollar-unhedged (-2.7% in NZD-hedged) terms for the month. Performance was broadly negative from a sector perspective, with only the utilities and energy sectors in the black. Information technology was a standout on the negative side with a -5.6% return.
Locally, market returns for the...

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on May 8, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: Global Divergence

After years of most of the world sharing the common sudden stop and recovery associated with COVID-19, there are now significant differences in economic prospects across countries. These differences have led to some central banks lifting policy rates (à la Bank of Japan) while others, such as the European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have hinted at cuts. The Swiss National Bank has gone one step fur...

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Chris Di Leva, Hamish Pepper | Posted on Apr 22, 2024
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Harbour Navigator: Hot sheds - Growth in data centre demand and the real estate investment opportunity.

Global demand for data centre space is set to increase significantly and the compute density of GenAI significantly increases the electricity required to keep computer capacity cool.
Real estate is a key determinant of a successful data centre, with data centres having specific locational requirements making land with access to electricity a crucial enabler for data centres.
In our opinion, the DC megatrend tail wind may remai...

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Shane Solly | Posted on Apr 17, 2024