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Harbour Outlook: Markets still focused on inflation

 Key points
The MSCI All Country World (global shares) Index fell -1.5% over the month in NZD-unhedged terms, and -2.9% in NZD-hedged terms.
The New Zealand equity market (S&P/NZX 50 Gross with imputation) finished the month up 0.9%, whilst the Australian equity market (S&P ASX 200) rose 1.2% in AUD terms in the month, and 1.8% in NZD terms.
Bond yields rose over the month with New Zealand 10-year government bond yields ending...

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Sep 8, 2022
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Harbour Navigator: Inflation moderating but not yet tamed

Inflation may have peaked, reducing the risks of severe monetary policy tightening and a deep recession.
Supply chains are partly normalising and slowing demand in most economies is reducing extreme pressures on prices.
Tight labour markets, however, are placing upward pressure on wages and the current high inflation rates mean that central banks may retain a tightening bias for some time.
Global economic growth has slowed mor...

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Aug 30, 2022
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Harbour Outlook: Quality growth through a turning point?

Key points 
The MSCI All Country World (global shares) Index rose 6.1% over the month in NZD-unhedged terms, and 7.1% in NZD-hedged terms.

The New Zealand equity market (S&P/NZX 50 Gross with imputation) finished the month up 5.7%, whilst the Australian equity market (S&P ASX 200) rose 5.7% in AUD terms in the month, and 6.3% in NZD terms. 

Bond yields declined over the month with New Zealand 10-year government bond yields e...

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Harbour team | Posted on Aug 8, 2022
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Harbour Outlook: From stagflation to low growth?

Key points 
The MSCI All Country World (global shares) Index fell -4.1% over the month in NZD-unhedged terms, and -7.7% in NZD-hedged terms. The index ended the quarter -5.7% in NZD-unhedged and -14.3% in NZD-hedged terms. 

The New Zealand equity market (S&P/NZX 50 Gross with imputation) finished the month down -3.9% (-10.3% for the quarter), whilst the Australian equity market (S&P ASX 200) fell -8.8% in AUD terms in the mon...

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Harbour team | Posted on Jul 8, 2022
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Impact Investing: Responsible investing’s latest frontier

What is Impact Investing? Responsible investing has evolved over time, from simple portfolio exclusions such as alcohol and tobacco, through to only selecting investments that meet certain Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria, and investment managers engaging with company management to try to effect positive change in these ESG areas.  

Impact investing has become a buzzword of late and has evolved to mean slig...

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Jul 1, 2022
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Contact’s closure cuts carbon

Contact Energy has announced the retirement of a gas-fuelled power station
Contact’s direct carbon emissions expected to be reduced by 20% p.a.
Re-deployment opportunities will be available for affected workers to support a just transition
Generation shortfall expected to be met by new renewable energy, helping to achieve their climate strategy
With the proliferation of new climate change commitments made by governments and co...

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Jorge Waayman | Posted on Jun 21, 2022
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Controlling inflation is a key pillar to calm markets

Central banks are focussed on bringing down inflation
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand amongst the earliest to hike rates and now others are moving rapidly
Sharp interest rate rises are now largely baked into financial markets
Lowering inflation is the best outcome for businesses and ultimately households
We think expectations of a cash rate of 4.6% by May 2023, is excessive although markets will continue to monitor inflation ...

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Mark Brown | Posted on Jun 17, 2022
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The end of the “Great Moderation”?

Most economists expect historically high inflation to moderate over the next year, but the near-term outlook is uncertain.
Over the long term, changing structural inflation forces may create even greater uncertainty for investors.

The possible end of the great moderation – the period of relatively benign economic cycles - that has prevailed for most of the past 40 years - may see fixed income investors seek greater compensat...

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Jun 10, 2022
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Harbour Outlook: Cycling at warp speed … recession priced in?

Key points
The MSCI All Country World (global shares) Index fell -0.2% over the month in both NZD-hedged and -unhedged terms.
The New Zealand equity market (S&P/NZX 50 Gross with imputation) finished the month down -4.8%, whilst the Australian equity market (S&P ASX 200) fell -2.6% in AUD terms (-1.9% in NZD terms).
Bond yields tracked downwards through May with a partial re-tracing through the last week of the month. As a res...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Jun 9, 2022
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Harbour Navigator: Lukewarm Plan for Global Warming

  • The New Zealand Government has announced their emissions reduction plan for de-carbonising the economy through several policy initiatives
  • Transport will play a key role in driving change through new light fleet and freight targets, supported by a ‘scrap and replace’ scheme
  • Energy and agriculture sectors will receive significant funding to help de-carbonise and accelerate research into clean technology solutions
  • Regulation and Government incentives will provide both positive and negative financial impacts to companie
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Jorge Waayman | Posted on May 18, 2022