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Normalising Global Interest Rates

Key DevelopmentsIn September, there were two main local market events in New Zealand which were somewhat overshadowed by the broader theme of normalising global interest rates.

The first was the hard-fought NZ election, which left no clear government formed on election night.  Consistent with the last 8 MMP elections in NZ, it will likely take some time for a government to form. This process is not a surprise for local nor in...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Oct 4, 2017
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NZ Election: Business as Usual

After the hard-fought NZ election campaign, markets are still left with some political uncertainty, with no
clear government formed on election night.

As the political parties enter coalition negotiations, an eventual National-NZ First Government appears
more likely than Labour-Greens-NZ First. However, it is still far too early to call. Consistent with the
last 8 MMP elections in NZ, it will likely take some time for a Gover...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Sep 25, 2017
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Lessons from RBOHA

On 8 October, a large number of retail investors will breathe a sigh of relief, as they receive their principal of $900m back on what was New Zealand’s largest retail bond issue when launched ten years ago. It has been a bumpy ride for these investors. Many lessons have been learnt. In a world of low yields and interest rates, they will face one remaining question of how best to put their principal back to work to generate inc...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Sep 22, 2017
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Changing Political Landscapes

Key developments In August, against a backdrop of rising geo-political tensions, many Australasian companies announced their half year or full year financial results; the impact of disruptive technologies was evident in many profit announcements.

We caution on reading too much in the aggregate company profit results, as increasingly the divergence in results is becoming obvious. For instance retail, media and telecommunicatio...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Sep 8, 2017
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NZ Election: Down to the No.8 Wire

The New Zealand election on 23 September may come down to the (No. 8) wire. By international standards, both National and Labour-led governments appear relatively centrist, without large policy differences. However, New Zealand equity market valuations are full, meaning that the market may become increasingly sensitive to changes in macro-economic settings, uncertainty and change. Some investors may want to be patient and see ...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Aug 31, 2017
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Quantitative Investment Styles and when they perform

Factor investing as a style has become increasingly popular in the last decade with the rise of Smart Beta funds globally. These strategies are expected to outperform the market over the long term. Each different strategy selects companies based on favourable characteristics defined by the strategy. There are many different factors such as risk based factors (value and size) that command a premium, fundamental factors (growth ...

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Susanna Lee | Posted on Aug 18, 2017
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Low Inflation and Solid Earnings Growth

Key developments At the end of June, bond and equity markets were briefly rattled by concerns that central banks were readying the market for the removal of stimulus.  Comments from the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada had almost seemed co-ordinated, pointing to a shift in focus from the threat of deflation to the prospects of reflation.

Through the course of July, equity markets n...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Aug 9, 2017
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Investment Implications from Electric Vehicle Momentum

It has been hard to miss recent headlines relating to the progress of electric vehicles (EVs) and the
phasing out of the internal combustion engine (ICE) that powers the majority of today’s cars.

In May, Daimler announced the funding of its first European battery plant for its future Mercedes
EVs. Last week, Volvo announced that all its new-model cars will have an electric drivetrain by 2019;
a mix of hybrids and pure EVs. Ov...

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Oyvinn Rimer | Posted on Jul 7, 2017
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Raising Inflation Targets?

At the press conference following the US Federal Reserve (US Fed)’s most recent interest rate decision, Governor Janet Yellen made an admission that marks a significant change in tone from the US Fed.  She acknowledged that the debate over whether to raise inflation targets is “one of the most important questions facing monetary policy”[1], and encouraged further research. While we still believe there is a low chance of the US...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Jun 30, 2017
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RBNZ: Inflation, What Inflation?

At yesterday’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
genuinely surprised financial markets, by assessing that the economic data received since February had a
neutral impact on the appropriate stance of monetary policy. While in the lead up many commentators
had focused on the recent jump in annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, the RBNZ’s response
could be summed up as “what infl...

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Harbour Team | Posted on May 12, 2017