Harbour Outlook: Inflation, oil and geopolitics shape the outlook
Key market movements
Global equities continued the rally in May adding another 3.4% in NZD-unhedged terms (and 5.1% in NZD-hedged terms as the New Zealand dollar strengthened through the month). Emerging markets outperformed through the month (+9.7%), with AI-exuberance fuelling extraordinary returns from Korea and Taiwan.
The New Zealand market staged a bit of a resurgence, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputati…
Harbour Navigator: SpaceX - The IPO That Rewrote the Rulebook
SpaceX is targeting a $1.8 trillion valuation in what would be the largest IPO in history, and the sheer scale of the listing may reshape how major stock indices work.
Index providers including Nasdaq, FTSE Russell, and potentially S&P have rewritten their inclusion rules specifically to accommodate SpaceX, forcing many passive funds to buy the stock almost immediately after listing.
With only around 5% of shares available t…
Harbour Outlook: An Uneven Rebound Across Global Markets
Key market movements
Global equities rebounded strongly in April, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) advancing 6.7% in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms. Hedged investors experienced a more pronounced gain, with the ACWI rising 9.0% in hedged NZD terms, as the New Zealand dollar appreciated over the month.
Australasian equities missed the April rally, underperforming global peers. The S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (includ…
Harbour Navigator: Oil shock, structural shift or acceleration?
The latest oil shock is reinforcing electrification and energy security trends already underway, not resetting the system.
Acceleration, Not Disruption
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a renewed and significant oil price shock, resurfacing familiar concerns around energy security, fuel affordability and exposure to geopolitically fragile supply chains. However, unlike previous oil shocks, this episode is unfoldin…
Harbour Outlook: Crude Realities, Careful Navigation
Key market movements
• Global equities fell sharply in March, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) declining 2.4% in unhedged New Zealand dollar terms. Hedged investors experienced a more pronounced decline, with the ACWI falling 6.6% in hedged NZD terms, as the New Zealand dollar weakened over the month.
• Australasian equities sold off materially in March. The S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation cred…
Harbour Navigator: Software’s AI Reckoning: The Case for Selectivity
The global software sector has long been one of the market’s most reliable sources of compounding growth. Recurring revenue, high margins, deep customer relationships, and powerful network effects combined to produce businesses that, once established, were extraordinarily difficult to dislodge. For investors, the appeal was obvious: visibility, durability, and a growth profile that justified premium valuations.
Twelve months…
Harbour Outlook: Tariffs, Tehran and Turbulence
Key market movements
Global equities navigated a multi-faceted landscape, delivering solid returns over the month. The MSCI ACWI rose 2.1% in NZD terms and 1.4% for NZD‑hedged investors, with markets continuing to rotate away from mega-cap US technology names.
New Zealand and Australian equities also performed well. The S&P/NZX 50 gained 2.3%, supported by an encouraging domestic earnings season, while Australian shares a…
Harbour Navigator: What Middle East tensions mean for markets
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have understandably prompted questions from investors, following US–Israel military action against Iran and subsequent retaliation. While these events are serious and fluid, history suggests markets can absorb geopolitical shocks over time. While the situation is evolving quickly, here’s what we know right now - and some important considerations for investors.
What has happened and how s…
Harbour Navigator: China’s evolving growth story and what to expect in 2026
2025 shaped up to be a much better year for the Chinese economy than what financial analysts thought possible. The shock of Liberation Day and subsequent tariffs escalation weighed heavily on economic forecasts for China. Yet, as it turned out, tariffs became less punitive and China showed a remarkable ability to export into new and growing markets to more than make up for lost exports to the U.S.
Source: Bloomberg
However, …
Harbour Outlook: Market, meet your new Fed Chair
Key market movements
Global equities got off to a strong start despite renewed geopolitical tensions. The MSCI ACWI fell 2.1% in NZD terms but rose 2.3% for NZD‑hedged investors, with currency moves dominating performance as US dollar softness offset solid underlying global momentum.
New Zealand and Australian equities were mixed. The S&P/NZX 50 declined 0.9% as local markets lagged the global tone, while Australian shares g…