Harbour Navigator: Made in America
Technology is in place for the roll out of driverless cars and trials are underway. Head of Equities, Craig Stent got to test out the new Jaguar I-PACE first-hand in Phoenix.
There are various hurdles to overcome before we see more widespread adoption. Societal acceptance and regulatory restrictions may inhibit the uptake.
‘Made in America’ is back, with evidence of onshoring manufacturing occurring, however it is likely ...
Harbour Navigator: What you need to know about neutral interest rates
After declining between 1960 and 2020 due to growing working populations and decreasing productivity, neutral interest rates have stopped falling in recent years. This has prompted increased debate about where they go from here.
Neutral interest rates matter for financial markets because they help assess the impact of monetary policy and affect the valuation of financial assets based on discounted cash flows.
Harbour Outlook: Past the winter solstice, but is it spring yet?
After a string of strong returns for equity markets August saw a retreat. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) returned -2.1% in New Zealand dollar-hedged terms, however weakness in the New Zealand dollar over the month helped the index move 1.6% in New Zealand dollar terms. Closer to home the S&P/NZX 50 Gross index (with imputation credits) fell 4.2%, whilst the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell a more modest -0.7% in AUD...
Harbour Navigator: GLP-1 A healthcare breakthrough: hype versus reality
The GLP-1 drug class, which has predominantly been used to treat type 2 diabetes, has captured notable mindshare with healthcare specialists and macro investors due to initial findings from the Select study suggesting potential effectiveness of these drugs in addressing cardiovascular risk in obese patients.
The broader implications for obesity, cardiovascular events and other associated conditions within this drug class may ...
Harbour Navigator: Is a2 Milk the canary in the coal mine pointing to a Chinese structural slowdown?
Our recent visit to China has changed our view of the structural impediments facing our largest trading partner.
Demographic changes are impacting consumers’ medium-to-long-term outlook of the economy and they are adjusting their spending as a result.
The a2 Milk Company gave us a flavour last month of the impact from deteriorating demographics on the youngest age cohort.
After a multi-year COVID hiatus, we finally...
Harbour Navigator: New Zealand’s weakening export outlook to provide multiple challenges
Slowing global demand, led by a stalling Chinese economy, has seen New Zealand’s commodity export prices fall sharply in recent months.
Weaker export revenues will likely weigh on economic activity, supporting our view that further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hikes are not necessary and causing a further deterioration in the fiscal accounts that may require additional bond issuance.
Export weakness is also likely...
Harbour Navigator: Decarbonisation progress – more than hot air?
New Zealand’s emissions have not been falling despite the rising number of climate commitments, but there have been some encouraging examples of action from large emitters in the market.
Fletcher Building has developed the country’s lowest carbon cement through substituting coal in the production process with alternative fuels, such as used tyres and construction waste.
Contact Energy is investing significantly in new renewa...
Harbour Outlook: Inflection points for interest rates and earnings?
It was another strong month for equities, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) returning 2.0% in New Zealand dollar terms, and 3.2% in New Zealand dollar-hedged terms. Closer to home the S&P/NZX 50 Gross index (with imputation credits) advanced 1.2%, whilst the S&P/ASX 200 Index added 2.9% in AUD terms (and 2.4% in NZD terms).
Globally, returns were strong across all sectors, with energy leading the way at ...
Harbour Navigator: After the inflation peak
Investors should gradually gain confidence in most assets, as pessimism in the outlook for the economy gives way to understanding that highly restrictive monetary policy has done its job.
Despite the range of risks for financial markets, falling inflation has certainly been a positive factor for broad investment returns. Up until recently equity markets have also enjoyed a period of generally better than expected corporate ea...
Harbour Outlook: Is a soft landing really possible?
It was a strong month for global markets. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) returned 3.5% in New Zealand dollar terms, and 5.4% in New Zealand dollar-hedged terms. Returns were strong across all sectors, with consumer discretionary standing out at 9.9%. There was a general shift towards cyclical sectors with industrials and materials rounding out the top 3.
Australasian markets also rallied, with the S&P/NZX ...