Harbour Macro Research Day: Light at the end of the tunnel
- Harbour’s internal Macro Research Day is a chance to hear from external research providers, challenge assumptions and anchor our medium-term view.
- Highly effective COVID-19 vaccines and early rollout are allowing investors to look past the current acceleration in northern hemisphere cases.
- The New Zealand tourism industry is likely to miss international visitors over summer, however the rest of the economy is doing exceptionally well. Perhaps too well in the case of housing where Reserve Bank of New Zealand Loan-to-Value Ratio restrictions are coming to curb high-risk lending.
A bold bounce
Key Points
- Many economies, including New Zealand, are re-opening and recovering faster than expected
- High growth rates are normal after such a large contraction in activity and the recovery, so far, is partial
- Ongoing policy stimulus is expected, given the residual uncertainty
Faster please, to avoid the void
As we all battle COVID-19, some spending is stopping, suddenly.
For many businesses it is like stepping into the void. Already in a few days New Zealand has over 27,000 wage subsidy applications. That is a lot and it’s just the start. Sadly, higher unemployment will happen as many of us battle in the grandstands against something we can’t see while we all wish the very best for our brave medical specialists at the front line....
Harbour Macro Research Day: Mixed Signals
Harbour’s internal Macro Research Day is a chance to hear from external research providers, challenge assumptions and anchor our medium-term view.
The local outlook is mixed. Monetary conditions have eased and should support a recovery, but structural impediments mean business confidence may not pick up.
The global picture has improved which makes additional central bank support less likely.
Harbour held its bi-annual interna...