10 Risks to Watch in 2019
When investing in an uncertain world, it is useful to distinguish between a core view of the most likely outcome for economies and markets, and the key risks that could challenge that assessment.
In our most recent monthly Harbour Outlook we set out our core view. [1] Markets have experienced goldilocks conditions over the past 5 years, with solid economic growth, low inflation and low interest rates. Through 2018 we have see...
US earnings season delivers, but raises questions about future growth
Q3 US Earnings season was strong with 410 of the S&P 500 stock index beating consensus expectations. What wasn’t so strong was earnings guidance, which has led the market to downgrade future earnings expectations. While the outlook for US earnings looks less certain, we take some comfort from macroeconomic data which paints a solid picture of economic expansion.
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Harbour Outlook - Volatility Strikes Back
Key points
Financial market volatility has increased in recent months but still remains relatively low by historical standards.
While the macroeconomic data continues to point to a strong US economy, we are expecting the US Federal Reserve to be more cautious and data dependent as they approach more neutral interest rate settings.
While US-China tensions are likely to be a source of volatility as news headlines emerge, we exp...
The Third Scenario – The End of Goldilocks
While the RBNZ expects to keep the OCR on hold through 2019 and into 2020, in their past two Monetary Policy Statements they have outlined two alternative scenarios: one with stronger inflation pressures; and another with softer economic growth. In our view, the market is currently underestimating the chances of a third scenario, which is a combination of both stronger inflation pressures and softer economic growth.
One of th...
Postcard from Colorado – outdoor retailers
Harbour’s Managing Director Andrew Bascand and Senior Research Analyst Oyvinn Rimer travelled to Denver, Colorado for the Retail Outdoor conference.
Why did we attend the Outdoor Retailer Winter Market?
The Outdoor Economy in the U.S. alone is 3x bigger than the entire GDP of New Zealand
The Outdoor Economy is growing and is a source of global growth
Trade war and tariffs are impacting on the Outdoor Economy directly
Innovat...
US mid-terms election results: it’s now Blue and Red
With Andrew Bascand on a company research trip in Denver, Colorado, he has shared his on the ground views of the US mid-term election results and their implications.
My impression is that the US equity markets are fairly sanguine following the US election result because right now it is not about the politics – the economic data remains helpful and on track for the economic expansion to continue through 2019. The mid-terms ou...
Outlook: Equity Market Pullback
Key developments
For much of the year, the main theme has been global bond yields inching higher as US Federal Reserve continues normalising interest rates; while at the same time equity markets also moved steadily higher, supported by solid global growth. However, finally in October equity markets experienced a noticeable and widespread pullback.
Chart 1. Equity market levels since the beginning of 2018
The New Zealand eq...
ESG is good for your wealth
Public interest in environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and the ensuing demand for these to be incorporated into investments has been noticeably increasing over time. In the eight years since Harbour Asset Management became a signatory to the UN Principles of Responsible Investing, a sea change has occurred as more fund managers seek to incorporate responsible investment approaches. Increasingly, the expectation ...
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Investment Horizon: Harbour Macro Research Day
Our internal Macro Research Day is a chance to re-visit the research that anchors our medium-term view.
Locally, we expect economic activity to moderate rather than slow sharply, and the RBNZ to remain on hold for a considerable time ahead to provide the best chance for core inflation to lift above 2%.
Globally, we see interest rates rising, but with monetary policy still supportive for financial markets while global inflation...
Outlook: Low Local Interest Rates
Key developments
In September we saw a continuation of the theme of low local interest rates in New Zealand, in a broader global environment where bond yields overseas have crept higher. This provided support for the local fixed interest and equity markets, while the NZ dollar remained at its recent low levels.
The tone in global markets has remained relatively cautious, with worries about trade tensions, pockets of strain ...
