IncomeFund banner v3

How this could be different to the GFC

Key Points

  • Headlines around COVID-19 outside of Asia have continued to worsen and, coupled with the oil spat between Russia and Saudi Arabia, have sharply reduced investment sentiment and created pockets of financial stress.
  • While sentiment is clearly downbeat, we need to recognise that there is still a wide range of outcomes that can occur.
  • In the event COVID-19 does result in recession, note all recessions have been different.
  • While this volatility is unsettling, it is important to put this sell-off in historical context.
READ MORE
Harbour sails 8
Harbour Team | Posted on Mar 13, 2020
webbanner7

Electricity demand smelting away?

Key points

  • The probability of closure versus 2013 has increased

  • Weak commodity prices, energy and transmission costs are the main issues

  • As in 2013, the electricity industry may bow to Rio Tinto’s pressure, but possibly not the Government this time

  • Higher volatility in share prices and wholesale electricity prices is likely near term

READ MORE
CS web 17
Craig Stent | Posted on Oct 23, 2019
webbanner1 v2

The move to the public cloud accelerates

We try to attend at least one global technology conference each year to keep abreast of latest developments, market trends and hot topics. Over the last five years, speakers have focused on many exciting areas with large market growth potential (covering online migration and SaaS business models disrupting the old world), consumers going mobile, big data and Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IOT) to nam...

READ MORE
KB web 17
Kevin Bennett | Posted on Sep 30, 2019
webbanner6 v2

Secular changes are benefitting global growth investing. Are they here to stay?

Key points:Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), growth stocks have outperformed value stocks significantly. This follows a long period of outperformance for value.
Whilst the “tech bubble” made some investors weary of technology and growth companies, valuation levels for tech companies today are significantly lower than 20 years ago. Further, investors should look at the earnings certainty of industry incumbents through th...

READ MORE
CDL web
Chris Di Leva | Posted on Jul 12, 2019
webbanner1 v2

Three things the Equity Risk Premium is telling us about investment markets

One of the key decisions that investors must make is how much to respectively allocate to equities and bonds. This decision is made in the knowledge that over time equities have generated superior investment returns. Compensation for the additional volatility, the additional return equities earn over bonds is known as the Equity Risk Premium (ERP). The ERP, while persistent over the long term, varies over the short to medium term, with the direction of the variance having broad implications for investment portfolios.  

READ MORE
CDL web
Chris Di Leva | Posted on Feb 12, 2019
webbanner6

Australian Royal Commission: Final report shakeup

After a year long review the Hayne Royal Commission (RC) into Misconduct in Financial Services has laid out recommendations. This reshaping of the financial services industry has significant implications and received strong political support, ahead of a likely election by 18 May 2019. It is possible that the Labor Party may have a harsher interpretation of potential changes than the RC recommends.

READ MORE
Harbour sails 7
Andrew Bascand, Simon Momich | Posted on Feb 5, 2019
webbanner3 v2

New Zealand equity market debt trends

One of the driving factors behind the global financial crisis (GFC) was high levels of company debt. High leverage and lower earnings coverage of interest costs heightened risk in the US equity market. Recently published research by a global investment bank[i]  suggests that US company debt levels may be creeping up again. But are we seeing the same thing happen in New Zealand?

Research by Harbour indicates that the median N...

READ MORE
Harbour sails 2
Andrew Bascand, Shane Solly | Posted on Jan 28, 2019
webbanner5

Postcard from Colorado – outdoor retailers

Harbour’s Managing Director Andrew Bascand and Senior Research Analyst Oyvinn Rimer travelled to Denver, Colorado for the Retail Outdoor conference.

Why did we attend the Outdoor Retailer Winter Market?

The Outdoor Economy in the U.S. alone is 3x bigger than the entire GDP of New Zealand
The Outdoor Economy is growing and is a source of global growth
Trade war and tariffs are impacting on the Outdoor Economy directly
Innovat...

READ MORE
Harbour sails 1
Oyvinn Rimer, Andrew Bascand | Posted on Nov 14, 2018
webbanner12

US mid-terms election results: it’s now Blue and Red

With Andrew Bascand on a company research trip in Denver, Colorado, he has shared his on the ground views of the US mid-term election results and their implications.

My impression is that the US equity markets are fairly sanguine following the US election result because right now it is not about the politics – the economic data remains helpful and on track for the economic expansion to continue through 2019.  The mid-terms ou...

READ MORE
AB web 17 v3
Andrew Bascand | Posted on Nov 9, 2018
webbanner6

Harbour Navigator: Postcard from China - The eCommerce growth model

I visited China last week and met with companies and commentators to dig beneath the data and get a sense of the current issues.

We visited many malls and shopping centres. In particular we went to mother and baby stores to experience the consumer in action, and witnessed the new eCommerce model. We also visited “wet markets”, hired bicycles with WeChat, and saw progress with a2’s new Chinese-labelled product. We saw first-ha...

READ MORE
AB web 17 v3
Andrew Bascand | Posted on Sep 14, 2018